Making net-zero ammonia possible: new transition strategy for the industry

By Julian Atchison on September 29, 2022

Mission Possible Partnership (MPP) launches new report

35 key endorsements for the new transition strategy report: Making net-zero ammonia possible (Mission Possible Partnership, Sept 2022).
Click to enlarge. 35 key endorsements for the new transition strategy report: Making net-zero ammonia possible (Mission Possible Partnership, Sept 2022).

MPP’s new report (click to download full pdf) has been endorsed by thirty-five leading ammonia energy players from across the value chain, comprising almost 25% of global production capacity outside China and Russia. The report sets out a series of levers, mechanisms and priorities for the coming decade to ensure the ammonia sector achieves a 50% emissions reduction target by the mid 2030s, before almost fully decarbonising by 2050.

Key takeaways

Some key take-home messages from Making net-zero ammonia possible (Mission Possible Partnership, Sept 2022).
Click to enlarge. Some key take-home messages from Making net-zero ammonia possible (Mission Possible Partnership, Sept 2022).
  • Ammonia demand will grow three-to-six fold from current volumes by 2050, largely due to maritime fuel requirements.
  • The maritime sector alone could “make or break” the scale-up of ammonia production.
  • “Green” ammonia will likely dominate over time, making up 70-90% of global ammonia production by 2050.
  • The ammonia sector will be responsible for 3-8% of global renewable electricity demand by 2050, and 9-28% of global green hydrogen demand.
  • Investments need to start immediately, and will need to be in the order of $59 – $105 billion each year to 2050. This is compared to business-as-usual investments of around $18 billion for the sector currently.
  • Fertiliser use is likely to increase 30% by 2050, but improvements in farming practices and reducing food waste could moderate this increase.

Priorities for the remainder of this decade

Priorities for this decade from Making net-zero ammonia possible (Mission Possible Partnership, Sept 2022).
Click to enlarge. Priorities for this decade from Making net-zero ammonia possible (Mission Possible Partnership, Sept 2022).
  • government action (certification & market-based mechanisms).
  • urgent scaling of renewable energy generation (enough to meet the demand for 70-210 GW of installed electrolysers).
  • commitments from maritime players (multi-year offtakes and green corridor collaborations).
  • and capital mobilsation for investment in near-zero emissions ammonia production ($25 billion–$52 billion annually).

Deployment milestones

Milestones for tech deployment and production for near-zero emissions ammonia. From Making net-zero ammonia possible (Mission Possible Partnership, Sept 2022).
Click to enlarge. Milestones for tech deployment and production for near-zero emissions ammonia. From Making net-zero ammonia possible (Mission Possible Partnership, Sept 2022).

This Ammonia Transition Strategy is operationally relevant and industry-backed, not wishful thinking or pie in the sky. We know how to reduce emissions, initially deploying resources and technology available today. The imperative is to act now, in this decade: we’re working with industry, supply chains and finance to deliver the clear thinking and asset-by-asset plans to make net zero viable.

Mission Possible Partnership CEO Matt Rogers in his organisation’s official press release, 21 Sept 2022