Making net-zero ammonia possible: new transition strategy for the industry

Mission Possible Partnership (MPP) launches new report

MPP’s new report (click to download full pdf) has been endorsed by thirty-five leading ammonia energy players from across the value chain, comprising almost 25% of global production capacity outside China and Russia. The report sets out a series of levers, mechanisms and priorities for the coming decade to ensure the ammonia sector achieves a 50% emissions reduction target by the mid 2030s, before almost fully decarbonising by 2050.

Key takeaways

• Ammonia demand will grow three-to-six fold from current volumes by 2050, largely due to maritime fuel requirements.
• The maritime sector alone could “make or break” the scale-up of ammonia production.
• “Green” ammonia will likely dominate over time, making up 70-90% of global ammonia production by 2050.
• The ammonia sector will be responsible for 3-8% of global renewable electricity demand by 2050, and 9-28% of global green hydrogen demand.
• Investments need to start immediately, and will need to be in the order of $59 – $105 billion each year to 2050. This is compared to business-as-usual investments of around $18 billion for the sector currently.
• Fertiliser use is likely to increase 30% by 2050, but improvements in farming practices and reducing food waste could moderate this increase.

Priorities for the remainder of this decade

• government action (certification & market-based mechanisms).
• urgent scaling of renewable energy generation (enough to meet the demand for 70-210 GW of installed electrolysers).
• commitments from maritime players (multi-year offtakes and green corridor collaborations).
• and capital mobilsation for investment in near-zero emissions ammonia production ($25 billion–$52 billion annually).

Deployment milestones

This Ammonia Transition Strategy is operationally relevant and industry-backed, not wishful thinking or pie in the sky. We know how to reduce emissions, initially deploying resources and technology available today. The imperative is to act now, in this decade: we’re working with industry, supply chains and finance to deliver the clear thinking and asset-by-asset plans to make net zero viable.

Mission Possible Partnership CEO Matt Rogers in his organisation’s official press release, 21 Sept 2022