UCL: accelerate ammonia deployment, avoid risking capital lock-in
By on March 16, 2026
LNG and methanol risk capital lock-in and entrenchment of fossil infrastructure
Click to expand. Analysis of LNG and methanol as “stepping stones” to zero-emissions shipping with ammonia fuel. Source: UCL Shipping and Oceans Research Group.
New academic research from the University College of London recommends immediate acceleration of ammonia deployment through dedicated R&D funding, demonstration projects and the development of robust safety standards, helping to establish marine ammonia fuel within “commercial niches” by the end of the decade. In tandem with building long-term credibility around emissions reduction goals (i.e. the passage and enforcement of measures like the stalled IMO net-zero framework), this approach locks in the most benefits and deepest GHG reductions.
In contrast, UCL researchers found that, while LNG and methanol “generate some knowledge spillovers and (useful) procedural regulatory learning”, any benefits will be outweighed by “capital lock-in” and the “entrenchment of fossil fuel infrastructure”. This risks competing with – rather than enabling – the long-term solution that is ZNZ (zero or near-zero emissions) marine ammonia fuel.
There is a real danger in confusing short-term movement with long-term progress. Our findings based on interviews, documentary analysis, including patent data and econometric analysis, show that investments in LNG and methanol can easily become dead ends if they lock capital, infrastructure and expectations into pathways that do not lead to zero-emission shipping.
Dr Pinar Langer, Research Fellow at the UCL Energy Institute Shipping and Oceans Research Group, in her organisation’s official press release, 13 Mar 2026
Near-term investments need to build a pathway to a sustainable long-term solution, not risk locking in further reliance on unsustainable fossil fuels or insufficient bioenergy. Our analysis shows the risks inherent in today’s focus on methanol and LNG as routes to clean shipping – and we show that they risk becoming dead ends.
Dr Will McDowall, at the UCL Energy Institute said, in his organisation’s official press release, 13 Mar 2026
Stepping stones build capacity-such as adaptable infrastructure or transferable skills-for a sustainable long-term solution. In contrast, dead ends may cut emissions in the short term but lock in fossil-based architectures and create stranded assets.
From the UCL Energy Institute Shipping and Oceans Research Group’s official press release, 13 Mar 2026
Ensuring a stepping stone is just that
The UCL team identifies potential for LNG as a “stepping stone” to ammonia fuel, but under specific conditions. For LNG, “stringent” policy needs to drive deployment of genuinely “ammonia ready” ships, port infrastructure and bunkering systems that can be cost-effectively repurposed when ammonia becomes available. Without safeguards, LNG investments risk becoming stranded assets that compete with – rather than enable – ammonia fuel.
You can access the full report here: https://doi.org/10.13140/RG.2.2.11929.89449
And explore more of UCL’s work on ammonia fuel here: https://ammoniaenergy.org/organization/university-college-london/