IRENA: multi-commodity green trade flows by 2050

By Julian Atchison on July 22, 2025

Renewable ammonia more than 30% of global demand by mid-century

Map of global ammonia flows in 2050 as predicted by IRENA.

Click to enlarge. Global ammonia flows in 2050, based on two capital cost scenarios. Figs 4 and 9 from The potential for green hydrogen and related commodities trade, (IRENA, July 2025).

IRENA’s new analysis – The potential for green hydrogen and related commodities trade – forecasts a diverse landscape of commodity flows based on electrolytic hydrogen by 2050. Ammonia is predicted to be both the most in-demand and the “most traded” of the hydrogen commodities (including methanol and direct-reduced iron), with the remainder of demand covered by “pure”, or gaseous hydrogen.

Two forecast scenarios are presented: “Same WACC”, with all the countries having equal weighted average cost of capital (WACC); and “Differentiated WACC” with varying WACC for each country based on IRENA’s own analysis. Under the first, generalised scenario, North Africa, Australia, Latin America and the Middle East are the major ammonia exporters, shipping around 110 million tons per year to key importers Europe, Japan, South Korea, and southeast Asia. Under the more complicated, country-specific scenario, China and the USA become major ammonia exporters alongside North Africa, shipping 130 million tons per year.

Infrastructure costs dominated by energy generation

Infrastructure requirement costs for 2050 global electrolytic hydrogen demand.

Click to enlarge. Infrastructure requirement costs for 2050 global electrolytic hydrogen demand. Fig 7 from The potential for green hydrogen and related commodities trade, (IRENA, July 2025).

The IRENA analysis also highlights the huge amount of infrastructure that needs to be constructed across the entire value chain. From “almost nothing today”, approximately $2.5 trillion worth of infrastructure is required to supply an estimated renewable hydrogen and commodity demand of 260 Mt H2-eq by 2050. This investment is associated with 4.7 TW of renewable generating capacity (mostly solar PV), 2.1 TW of electrolysers and 0.9 TWh of battery storage. Energy generation costs account for 46% of the $2.5 trillion figure.