Renewable ammonia price discoveries: a closer look at the H2Global and SECI auctions

The first successful bidders in a series of renewable ammonia reverse auctions facilitated by the Solar Energy Corporation of India (SECI) have just been announced. ACME will deliver 75,000 tons of ammonia per year from its upcoming renewable ammonia plant in Gopalpur Industrial Park to Paradeep Phosphates Limited in Paradeep over a ten-year fixed contract, with a fixed delivery price of ₹55.75/kg (around $641 per ton). Under similar terms, NTPC Renewable Energy will deliver 70,000 tons per year to Krishana Phoschem Limited in Meghnagar, Andhra Pradesh, with a fixed delivery price of ₹51.8/kg (around $591 per ton).

These are both substantially lower than the delivery price of €1,153 per ton of renewable ammonia in the H2Global pilot ammonia auction, which was won by Fertiglobe’s Egypt Green Project in Ain Sokhna, with deliveries of at least 40,000 tons of ammonia per year between 2028 and 2033 from Egypt to northwest Europe, with potential first deliveries in 2027. With three data points to now assess, let’s take a closer look at the difference between these prices, the drivers behind costs for renewable ammonia, and what market signals the auctions have sent.

“Green” hydrogen definitions

As per EU regulations, RFNBO-compliant “green” hydrogen requires monthly correlation with renewable energy inputs before 2030, and hourly correlation from 2030 onward. This typically results in oversized electrolyzers with variable operations, and thus increased capital expenditure (versus semi- or baseload operations). This is the case for the Egypt Green project to comply with RFNBO rules, with a 100 MW electrolyzer, coupled with a 203 MW wind power plant and a 70 MW solar PV power plant.

Click to enlarge. Ammonia volumes to be delivered from the Egypt Green project, as a result of the H2Global pilot auction. From Results of the H2Global Pilot auction (Sept 2024).

Theoretically, a 100 MW electrolyzer could produce around 100,000 tons of ammonia per year, but RFNBO-compliant hydrogen from the Egypt Green project only allows for up to around 60,000 tons of ammonia production post 2030 to meet hourly correlation requirements from renewable energy inputs. The FOB (free on board, ammonia plant gate) bidding price of the Egypt Green project is €811 per ton ($935 per ton).

Meanwhile, “green hydrogen” in India is defined with an emission threshold of 2 kg of CO₂ equivalents per kilogram hydrogen, measured as a 12-month average, as opposed to the hourly correlation required for RFNBO-compliant hydrogen in the EU. This allows for significant “grid banking” in India and semi-baseload operations of electrolyzers, and thus lower capital expenditure for project developers.

Click to enlarge. Levelized cost of renewable ammonia in India in 2027, based on various scenarios. From India’s hydrogen strategy: Implications for its clean/conventional ammonia and fertilizer industries (July 2023).

A 2023 Argus Media study found that an hourly correlation in India versus taking a 12-month average via “grid banking” produced a significant FOB price difference: around $900 per ton (for hourly correlation) versus $700 per ton (for the 12-month average). The less stringent threshold for certified electrolytic hydrogen (including both the emissions cut-off point and matching requirements for renewable energy inputs) thus explains some of the price differential between the H2Global and SECI auctions – with the important note that India’s approach de-risks projects by lowering up-front capital costs. This de-risking approach is also reflected in the large volume of enabling policies enacted by Indian governments federal and state, all designed to make renewable-based projects easier to develop.

Subsidy structures

The H2Global mechanism occurs as a Contracts for Difference (CfD) scheme, with (relatively) short-term offtake auctions based on a long-term fixed production price set by the producer. This means that the bidding price of the producer for the auction does not include any subsidies: they know that the market making intermediary (like H2Global) facilitates transactions for renewable commodities by subsidising whatever price gap ultimately emerges. The market rate evolves over time, steadily reducing this gap, and reducing the need for capital subsidies.

Meanwhile, fixed subsidies will be provided over a 3-year time frame (of the total 10 year contract) for the successful bidders in the green ammonia reverse auctions facilitated by the Solar Energy Corporation of India (SECI): $106 per ton in the first year, $85 per ton in the second year, and $85 per ton in the third year. These fixed subsidies have been well publicized for twelve months, and were included in both ACME and NTPC’s bid prices. This accounts for some of the price difference between the final results for the three renewable ammonia auctions.

Transportation requirements

Fertiglobe’s Egypt Green project in Ain Sokhna requires over 6,200 km of transportation to the Port of Rotterdam in the Netherlands. The estimated bid price from the H2Global pilot for transport charges, logistics, and import duties totals €189 per ton ($219 per ton).

Click to enlarge. Locations of ACME’s Gopalpur renewable ammonia project in Gopalpur and Paradeep Phosphates Limited offtake in Paradeep. The logistics costs for this journey are far below those of transporting renewable ammonia from Egypt to Rotterdam.

Compare this to ACME’s supply from its proposed renewable ammonia project in Gopalpur to Paradeep Phosphates, requiring transportation of around 250-300 km, all within the state of Odisha in India (so no import duties to consider). The price for transporting from Gopalpur to Paradeep would be well below $50 per ton of ammonia.

While it’s unclear which exact future production site NTPC’s renewable ammonia will come from, its development agreement with the state of Maharashtra likely places renewable ammonia production in the neighboring state to Krishana Phoschem’s manufacturing site in Andhra Pradesh. This would mean interstate transport of at least 300-400 km, with potential assistance from state governments to waive import duties and logistics costs. While likely not as low as transport costs for the very direct delivery route between Gopalpur and Paradeep, the very low strike price of NTPC’s renewable ammonia indicates that these logistics considerations are still minimal, especially compared to shipping ammonia from Egypt to Rotterdam. These differences in transport and logistics costs account for a significant amount of the H2Global-SECI auction FOB price gap.

Other price discoveries

Low prices have also been reported for renewable ammonia from China produced in China, below $700 per ton FOB, as reported by S&P Global. If transported to Europe, transportation and logistics costs will be significant, but this will not be the case for local offtake (i.e. Japan or South Korea).

These various elements – different definitions for “green” hydrogen (and the subsequent impact on project development), subsidy structures, and transportation & logistics costs –  all contribute to the gap between discovered prices for the H2Global and SECI renewable ammonia auctions.  The H2Global and SECI auctions are also focused on spurring different early markets: domestic use of renewable molecules for fertilizer production in India, versus import of renewable molecules as energy carriers into the EU. More data points will provide greater clarity, and point to where early market success will materialize.